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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:54 am 
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Syria shot down at least one Turkish RF4, maybe two, since last Friday. The two countries aren't on good terms during "normal" times, but with Syria feeding the Kurds and several border incursions, they're at complete odds at this point.

Turkey is a member in good standing in NATO. Syria still counts Russia among its most stout supports.

How much of a mess could this turn into and why isn't the US media even talking about it?


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:00 pm 
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Nobody at all thinks this is a problem?

There's corners of the intarwebs that know about these types of things who believe it could go sideways in a rather obscene way if not handled correctly.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:37 pm 
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Well, I admit that I do have some concerns with escalation. The Turks did send I think 15 tanks and some additional troops to the border as a show of force, which frankly isn't unusual.

I don't think that this is necessary Sarajevo in 1914 where the actions of a few could cause a collision of Great Powers. So far in the 20th century NATO and the United States as well as the Soviet Union and Russia have been able to keep peripheral conflicts peripheral. The South Ossetia war IMHO was a far more dangerous time.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:56 pm 
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France is speeding its withdrawal from Afghanistan, reportedly in part because of their concerns about the situation in Syria. Aside from that, I'm not sure how much of a capacity NATO has to intervene at the moment. Similarly, Russia may not be in a good position to intervene either.

It's good to keep an eye on things, but this is probably not a huge cause for concern.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:56 pm 
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NATO is meeting this weekend to discuss how to deal with Syria. now that Iran has been disinvited, the US will attend.

Hillary said that the international community is remarkably on the same page about this. I believe this will be contained before a conflagration begins.

There is a shop in my neighborhood I visit frequently for emergency dog rations, cold drinks and lottery tickets. The owners and all employees are Syrian. They have relatives still there, most of whom are out of harm's way, but not all. They had the TV turned to CNN one day rather than their usual sports channel. Farouk was sitting on a stool, trembling and pale, with his head in his hands. They had been watching a segment about the fighting in Syria in which an apartment building was bombed. It was directly across the street from the building his family lives in.

He has since located his relatives to a rural location. He is certain NATO will do a good job.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:02 pm 
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And some of you long-term Fogbowers know why this developing situation is not making me happy. :(

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 3:48 pm 
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Why "disinvite" one of the entities that can aid in backing the situation between Turkey and Syria down and maybe get Assad to stop murdering his citizens?

The stupidity is mind boggling.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 4:56 pm 
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John Thomas8 wrote:
Why "disinvite" one of the entities that can aid in backing the situation between Turkey and Syria down and maybe get Assad to stop murdering his citizens?

The stupidity is mind boggling.

Diplomacy by ostracism has worked so well in the past. Isn't there a story about an attempt by Ho Chi Minh to meet with officials in the U.S. Embassy in Paris, only to be turned away?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:08 pm 
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How many died after that superiourly stupid decision was made?


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:09 pm 
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Hundreds of thousands died. It is by no means certain that the Vietnam War could have been avoided by that negotiation, because we were operating on the domino theory -- if South Vietnam falls to the Communists, even by free and fair elections, then we will just have to fight the Communists on a larger scale elsewhere in Asia. We had already seen the Chinese involve themselves in another land war in Asia. So we stupidly took the place of the defeated French.

If we and the British had not returned Indochina to France after the defeat of the Japanese (on the grounds that the French needed Indochina to recover from World War II) but had instead renounced colonialism everywhere, the Vietnam War might not have been the only war that we avoided. The world has not yet finished paying the price for the colonial era. I think there will also be a price to pay for the era of American hegemony.

As I might have written before, one of the things that I learned in a visit to Hanoi was that it is still the French at whom the Vietnamese are angry. We Americans are considered to have been simpletons or patsies. However, a Vietnamese kid sold me a bootleg copy of The Ugly American while I was there. It was rather a different experience to read it again while in Hanoi.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:31 pm 
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But that was at a time where the French thought they mattered. Their surrender and collaboration in 1940 still hangs over the military. The British and Americans were trying to be nice at the end of the war.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:44 pm 
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Reuters

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UN Security Council condemns Syrian attack on Turkey

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The U.N. Security Council on Thursday condemned a Syrian mortar attack on a Turkish border town that killed five people and demanded that "such violations of international law stop immediately and are not repeated."

The rare agreement on a Syria statement condemned the attack "in the strongest terms" and came after Russia rejected an initial text on Wednesday's incident and proposed a diluted version calling on both Turkey and Syria to exercise restraint.

Western council members objected to Moscow's text but revised the original draft to accommodate some Russian concerns.

Consensus within the council on anything related to Syria is unusual and it has been deadlocked on the issue of the country's 18-month-long conflict for more than a year, with Russia and China rejecting calls to sanction the Damascus government. ...

The mortar attack happened on Wednesday and Turkey responded by striking targets in Syria later the same day and on Thursday.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:50 pm 
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Russia rents a naval base from Syria. It is their only foothold into the Mediterranean. Give them an alternative and Syria will be free to be bombed without Russian threat.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:04 pm 
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VOA

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Turkey Approves Possible Further Action Against Syria

ISTANBUL/WASHINGTON — The Turkish parliament has approved a government motion to authorize further military operations outside the country's borders, after striking Syrian targets in response to a deadly cross-border mortar attack. ...

Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said the one-year measure is not a declaration of war, but intended as a deterrent against aggressive action by Syria. ...

The Turkish government has in the past said it would not intervene unilaterally in Syria. But it is finding little international support for intervention from the United Nations or NATO. Following Syria's shelling, Turkey's allies condemned Syria and called for restraint.

Turkish analyst Sinan Ulgen said Ankara has been generally disappointed by international response to the Syrian crisis.

"Turkey feels it has been left alone to deal with crisis on Syria," he said. "The international community, despite having engaged in the rhetoric of the responsibility to protect, did not live up to the bargain."

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:08 pm 
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Russia signing that deceleration is VERY significant. Its a huge signal to Syria to knock this shit off, or else they are on their own, which would mean airstrikes in the morning, most likely.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:35 pm 
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Associated Press

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Wider war feared between Turkey and Syria

AKCAKALE, Turkey Turkey and Syria fired artillery and mortars across their volatile border for a fifth consecutive day on Sunday, in one of the most serious and prolonged flare-ups of violence along the frontier.

The exchange of fire stoked fears that Syria's civil war will escalate into a regional conflagration drawing in NATO member Turkey, once an ally of President Bashar Assad but now a key supporter of the rebels fighting to topple him. ...

Ankara's warning was coupled by an apparent diplomatic push by the Turkish leadership to promote Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa as a possible figure to head a transitional administration to end the conflict in the country.

In an interview with Turkish state television TRT Saturday, Davutoglu said that al-Sharaa was a figure "whose hands are not contaminated in blood" and therefore acceptable to Syrian opposition groups.

It was not clear whether the Turkish stance was coordinated with other allies, but the candid remarks by Davutoglu suggested some consensus might be emerging over a future role for him.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:54 pm 
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The links between Syria and Iran worry me about as much as the links between Syria and Russia.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:03 pm 
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TollandRCR wrote:
The links between Syria and Iran worry me about as much as the links between Syria and Russia.


IMHO the ability of the Russians to support a country that it does not border is not even close to the power the Soviets were able to project. To be of much use, the Russians have to have the military aircraft that are rotting at airfields all over the old Soviet Union. Their navy isn't much to brag about lately either. Their system still has that fatal weakness to ignore bad news, failure, and incompetence. Also I feel their system collapsed because the leadership believed the bullshit they were fed by subordinates while knowing it wasn't correct.
Iran on the other hand just has to cross Iraq. Iraq's army isn't what it used to be for some reason. There is still the issue of having enough aircraft to support such an undertaking. The Iranis will still have to transit the Suez Canal to ship weapons by water/boat leaving them extremely exposed. Finally in both cases, I don't know if either one can afford the cost of supporting a proxy in Syria. Iran is having a currency collapse and the Russian Ruble has undergone so many changes in the last 20 years.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:32 pm 
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New York Times

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Tensions Soar as Turkey Forces Down Syrian Jet ...

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Turkey sharply escalated its confrontation with Syria on Wednesday, forcing a Syrian passenger plane to land in Ankara on suspicion of carrying military cargo, ordering Turkish civilian airplanes to stay out of Syrian airspace and warning of increasingly forceful responses if Syrian artillery gunners keep lobbing shells across the border. ...

The steps taken by Turkey added ominous new tensions to its troubled relationship with Syria, where a nearly 19-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad has evolved into a civil war and threatened to touch off a regional conflict. Turkey is the host for main elements of the anti-Assad insurgency and for roughly 100,000 Syrian refugees, who have been fleeing in greater numbers as violence has increased along the 550-mile border in recent days. Several mortar bombs have landed on Turkish soil, prompting Turkish gunners to return fire.

News reports on Wednesday spoke of intensified fighting close to the Syrian border settlement of Azamarin, with mortar and machine-gun fire clearly audible from the Turkish side. Wounded civilians, some of them in makeshift boats full of women and children, could be seen crossing the narrow Orontes River, which demarcates part of the Syrian border with Hatay province in Turkey. ...

The rising tensions between Turkey and Syria are especially troublesome because Turkey is a member of NATO, which considers an attack on one member an attack on all, implicitly raising the possibility that NATO will be drawn into a volatile Middle East conflict.

On Tuesday, the NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, emphasized that NATO had “all necessary plans in place to protect and defend Turkey if necessary.”

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 7:39 pm 
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The Daily Star (Lebanon) Oct. 11, 2012 Turkey-Syria tensions sky high emphasis mine
DAMASCUS/ANKARA: Turkey intercepted Wednesday a Syrian passenger plane suspected of transporting banned cargo from Moscow to Damascus as the U.S. announced it had military planners in Jordan to prepare for any chemical weapons threat.

Meanwhile, on the ground in Syria, the regime rejected a call by the United Nations for a unilateral cease-fire Wednesday as rebels confronted columns of tanks and troops sent to retake a strategic town on the road to main battleground city Aleppo.

In Aleppo, rebels launched an attack on army positions in the northern metropolis’s landmark Umayyad Mosque in the heart of the Old City, adding to the urgency for the army to restore its supply lines.
...
As he [Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi] spoke, the embattled regime was sending tanks from Mastumah, south of the city of Idlib to Maaret al-Numan, a rebel source told an AFP reporter in the nearby town of Sarmin.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 7:54 pm 
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The National Abu Dhabi, UAE. July 9, 2012 Turkey's hands are tied in Syria by its disingenuous Nato allies
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...
In light of the plan, any attempts by Turkey to escalate will be seen as obstructing international diplomacy. According to Ismail Yasa, a prominent Turkish columnist, Ankara realises that the Geneva plan will not be implemented but is obliged to hold back until it officially fails. "The majority [in Turkey] expects a response to the jet's downing to maintain Turkey's dignity but without being drawn into a war," Yasa told The National.

The plan was a major diplomatic victory for Russia, preventing a Turkish escalation while failing to specify any sort of enforcement mechanism. The regime now has a back-up plan on the shelf - the "Syria-led" transition - while for the time being Turkey is obliged to respect Syria's territorial integrity.

It is fair to ask why Kofi Annan, the joint special envoy of the UN and the Arab League, could convene the major powers in Geneva after the jet's downing, yet failed to do the same after each of the several major massacres in Syria recently.

This Geneva plan is a reminder of the initial Annan peace plan in April, secured shortly after the question of arming the rebels gained momentum. After the April plan was adopted, any moves towards the militarisation of the opposition were seen as detrimental to diplomatic efforts. On both accounts, the failure of the international community to respond to the violence is not a sign of impotence, but of a lack of urgency and seriousness in dealing with Syria's deepening humanitarian crisis.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:02 pm 
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New York Times

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U.S. Weighs Bolder Effort to Intervene in Syrian Conflict ...

The most urgent decision, likely to come next week, is whether NATO should deploy surface-to-air missiles in Turkey, ostensibly to protect that country from Syrian missiles that could carry chemical weapons. The State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said Wednesday that the Patriot missile system would not be “for use beyond the Turkish border.”

But some strategists and administration officials believe that Syrian Air Force pilots might fear how else the missile batteries could be used. If so, they could be intimidated from bombing the northern Syrian border towns where the rebels control considerable territory. A NATO survey team is in Turkey, examining possible sites for the batteries.

Other, more distant options include directly providing arms to opposition fighters rather than only continuing to use other countries, especially Qatar, to do so. A riskier course would be to insert C.I.A. officers or allied intelligence services on the ground in Syria, to work more closely with opposition fighters in areas that they now largely control. ...

In the case of Syria, a far more complex conflict than Libya’s, some officials continue to worry that the risks of intervention — both in American lives and in setting off a broader conflict, potentially involving Turkey — are too great to justify action. Others argue that more aggressive steps are justified in Syria by the loss in life there, the risks that its chemical weapons could get loose, and the opportunity to deal a blow to Iran’s only ally in the region. The debate now coursing through the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department and the C.I.A. resembles a similar one among America’s main allies. ...

On the more immediate concern about defending Turkey, NATO is expected to act on the Patriot missile request next week. The Patriot PAC-3 is the most modern air defense system in the American and NATO arsenals. Built by Lockheed Martin, the system successfully shot down Iraqi missiles in the early days of the war there in 2003, and has been deployed to South Korea to protect against missile attacks from the North.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:06 am 
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Associated Press

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Officials: NATO to decide on missiles for Turkey

BRUSSELS (AP) -- NATO foreign ministers are expected to approve Turkey's request for Patriot anti-missile systems to bolster its defense against possible strikes from neighboring Syria, officials said Tuesday.

Ankara, which has been highly supportive of the Syrian opposition to President Bashar Assad's regime, wants the Patriots to defend against possible retaliatory attacks by Syrian missiles carrying chemical warheads. Syria is reported to have an array of artillery rockets, as well as short- and medium-range missiles in its arsenal - some capable of carrying chemical warheads.

NATO leaders have repeatedly said they would provide any assistance Turkey needs.

The ministers are meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Brussels. Germany and the Netherlands are expected to provide several batteries of the latest PAC-3 version of the U.S.-built Patriots air defense systems which is optimized to intercept incoming missiles.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:48 pm 
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Rachel's chilling report.

Just some random observations from my neck of the woods... This morning our sky is a beautiful deep blue, or rather it would be if not for the numerous vapor trails from military jet flyovers making it appear to be (mostly) cloudy. My brother always comes up over Christmas; he is now saying he may not be able to make it this year.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:58 pm 
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:cry:

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