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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:33 pm 
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Snowe’s announcement took Republican leaders completely by surprise; she informed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) of her decision today, according to a person familiar with the decision. ...

Among the names mentioned as possible replacements on the ballot for the GOP: 2002 gubernatorial candidates Peter Cianchette, 2010 gubernatorial candidate Steve Abbott, state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, state Attorney General Bill Schneider, state Senate President Kevin Raye and Jock McKernan, Snowe’s husband and the state’s former governor. Businessman Scott D’Amboise was already challenging Snowe in a primary.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Chellie Pingree (D) and Mike Michaud (D) could run, as well as former congressman Tom Allen (D), who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in 2008.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:19 pm 
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If this doesn't stimulate some sober reflection on how dysfunctional and polar the Senate has become, what will?

But, sigh, I think the opportunity will be lost altogether on the Republican base. They'll no doubt have little trouble finding a wingnut from the far right to replace Senator Snowe on their ballot.

Maine used to be a model of moderate politic. Even with a population that is all over the board -- from single-issue gun nuts, died-in-the-wool libertarians, worker-friendly populists, fundies and "fiscal conservatives" to aging Muskie liberals -- Mainers tend to reject ideas that strike them as too extreme. But now we find ourselves with a governor (LePage) who can stand toe-to-toe with any anti-labor, pro-business bigot in the country.

Fortunately, I think (HOPE!) that LePage's tide is already on its way out and maybe...just maybe...this'll turn into a genuine pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:34 pm 
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Steve Brusk ‏ @stevebruskCNN

Pres. Obama on Snowe: "career demonstrates how much can be accomplished when leaders from both parties come together to do the right thing"

http://twitter.com/stevebruskCNN/status ... 4478254081

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:40 pm 
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She's still more conservative than the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. So the polarization of which she speaks may be laid in part at her door.

In her statement she repeated over and over how well prepared she was for the run and how she would have won had she done so. That's a red flag for me. I suspect she had some money problems and is facing a Tea Party challenge that she thought she might not be able to win. In order words, I don't believe her. I think she's quitting because she doesn't think she can win.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:58 pm 
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It could be. They've been calling her a traitor and a RINO since she dared speak to the democrats about voting in favour of having a vote on the health care bill.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:05 pm 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
In her statement she repeated over and over how well prepared she was for the run and how she would have won had she done so. That's a red flag for me. I suspect she had some money problems and is facing a Tea Party challenge that she thought she might not be able to win. In order words, I don't believe her. I think she's quitting because she doesn't think she can win.


I think it's more likely a variation on that. I think she probably could win. This is Maine; she is Olympia Snowe. I think she realized that she was going to have to deal with the primary challenge from the right, then deal with a general election campaign where any move to the right she made would be held against her, and that her best case win as a result of all this would be six more years in a caucus led by Mitch McConnell. I think she decided that it wasn't worth the effort.

I also think that, should Obama win reelection, she'll be offered a cabinet-level position of some sort.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:25 pm 
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Snowe was facing a challenge from Teabaggers who were quick to target her. I haven't located a poll which suggests Snowe was in any real danger of losing the primary. The linked Jan 30 article states Maine Democrats recognized they would be unlikely to defeat her in November, so allow your speculation to roll.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/3 ... 42534.html

RealClearPolitics will probably move the Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up" shortly.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:47 pm 
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Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
Snowe was facing a challenge from Teabaggers who were quick to target her. I haven't located a poll which suggests Snowe was in any real danger of losing the primary. The linked Jan 30 article states Maine Democrats recognized they would be unlikely to defeat her in November, so allow your speculation to roll.


I really think it's probably very similar to what she said in her statement. She's been a loyal Republican. She's voted the party line the vast majority of the time, including quite a few votes that have gone against some of her earlier position statements. Her reward has been increasing marginalization in her own caucus, routine vilification from the right wing echo chamber, and a primary from her right. I think she decided that it's just not worth the continued aggravation.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:49 pm 
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She could always have become a Democrat.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:57 pm 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
She could always have become a Democrat.


Which, I would think, would have allowed her to have more of a positive effect on the partisanship issue than dropping out of the race. It's not like she's that far away from the blue dogs, ideologically speaking...

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:59 am 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
She could always have become a Democrat.

Sen Snowe voted:
Yea on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget (SJ Res 10) Dec 14, 2011
Present on a cloture motion to end debate on the Richard Cordray nomination [Director, Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection] (PN 784) Dec 8, 2011
Nay on a cloture motion to end debate on the Joan Halligan nomination [Circuit Judge for the DC Circuit] (PN5) Dec 6, 2011
Nay on a cloture motion to end debate on the Goodwin Liu nomination [Circuit Judge for the 9th Circuit] (PN3) May 19, 2011
Nay on a confirmation vote for William Martinez to be District Judge for Colorado (PN1472) Dec 21, 2010
Nay on a confirmation vote for Benita Pearson to be District Judge for the ND of Ohio (PN1248) Dec 21,2010
Nay on a cloture motion to end debate on the Craig Becker nomination to the NLRB (PN1351) Feb 9, 2010
Nay on final passage for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (HR 3590) Dec 24, 2009
Nay on a confirmation vote for David Hamilton to be Circuit Judge for the 7th Circuit (PN 187) Nov 19, 2009
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legisl ... /votes.htm

No thank you. I prefer to take my chances on whichever Democrat wins the primary election.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:15 am 
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Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
No thank you. I prefer to take my chances on whichever Democrat wins the primary election.


Agreed, but Snowe did not contribute to the incivility and outright lunacy of recent years. I do not believe she was facing any serious opposition in her reelection campaign, and think she can be taken at her word on why she's not running. I do think she's a possible contender as a Presidential or VP candidate in the future.

The last Republican whose retirement was actually a loss to the country (IMO) was Sherwood Boehlert in 2006.

I don't anticipate any more in the future. The remaining ones are not just bad politicians with bad politics. They're bad people.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:50 am 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
She could always have become a Democrat.


She has a lot more class than Arlen. I'm not surprised she didn't go that route.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:42 am 
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A Legal Lohengrin wrote:
I do not believe she was facing any serious opposition in her reelection campaign, and think she can be taken at her word on why she's not running.

I agree, Loh. It appears to me she is leaving on her own terms and telling those who doubted her Republican credentials to go pound sand. Her favorable numbers linked in my above post, plus these tend to support Loh's and my speculation that Snowe did not face much threat of losing re-election.
Daily Kos wrote:
There ain't nothin' good about these numbers that I can see. An incumbent in the 50s is very pleased. An incumbent in the 60s is doing a happy dance—every few hours.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/0 ... n-new-poll

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:56 am 
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:yikes:

Zorba -- some of my best friends are Republicans.

Some.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:48 pm 
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Noted expert on the Senate:
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Very important! Lobby the popular governor Paul LePage of Maine to run for the US senate and replace Olympia Snowe, who threw us a rat yet again. He can appoint a republican replacement for Governor later

We need 4 seats to take the senate, we can’t afford to lose ME. Snowe acted as a traitor yet again. Thank god she is leaving, but she could give an appropriate notice to the party, so a replacement could be prepared and endorsed. Either this woman is suffering from an early dementia or she was bought.

:twisted: http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=32378 :twisted:

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:39 pm 
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Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
RealClearPolitics will probably move the Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up" shortly.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

I was wrong. RCP moved Maine from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democrat".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:26 pm 
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Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
I was wrong. RCP moved Maine from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democrat".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html


Wow!

Up here in Maine I've gotten many emails in the past few hours -- there seems to be a lot of energy behind a 'Draft Chellie Pingree' movement -- e.g., http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/ ... ftpingree/

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:20 am 
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MaineSkeptic wrote:
Wow!

Up here in Maine I've gotten many emails in the past few hours -- there seems to be a lot of energy behind a 'Draft Chellie Pingree' movement -- e.g., http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/ ... ftpingree/



Chellie Pingree was on Maddow tonight. I think she's gonna run. She said she was seriously considering it.

It was an interesting segment about how politics has been steadily moving right. I missed some of the interview with Pingree, but she comes on at about halfway through the segment.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp ... 7#46581797

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:25 am 
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Olympia Snowe has been a great senator and I regret her (well thought out) decision to not seek reelection, but opening up the Maine senatorial contest is likely gonna benefit teh Dems.

That said, come late January 2013 President Obama is gonna need a Secretary of State to replace Hillary since she plans to step down. Hmmm...SOS Snowe? And come 2016 Elizabeth Warren is gonna need a running mate. Since the Republic ( :mrgreen: ) party is in its death throes now, who can say that a Warren/Snowe ticket wouldn't be just what the doctor ordered for 2016? 8>

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:16 am 
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<Highlighting mine>
Adelante wrote:
Washington Post

Quote:
Snowe’s announcement took Republican leaders completely by surprise; she informed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) of her decision today, according to a person familiar with the decision. ...

Among the names mentioned as possible replacements on the ballot for the GOP: 2002 gubernatorial candidates Peter Cianchette, 2010 gubernatorial candidate Steve Abbott, state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, state Attorney General Bill Schneider, state Senate President Kevin Raye and Jock McKernan, Snowe’s husband and the state’s former governor. Businessman Scott D’Amboise was already challenging Snowe in a primary.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Chellie Pingree (D) and Mike Michaud (D) could run, as well as former congressman Tom Allen (D), who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in 2008.

It appears there will not be a major Democratic primary contest for Maine's open Senate seat.
Roll Call wrote:
Maine Rep. Mike Michaud announced tonight that he will not run to replace retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), a move that all but ensures fellow Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree will enter the race.

http://www3.atr.rollcall.com/maine-mich ... or-senate/

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:55 pm 
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Former Gov Angus King (I-ME) announced his candidacy for the open Senate seat.
Roll Call wrote:
Despite his lack of official party affiliation, state operatives have repeatedly described King as a worthy opponent, more frontrunner than spoiler. His political ideology is described as socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative.
<<snipped>>
Now that King is in the race, all eyes are shifting to Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) and whether she will enter the race. She issued a statement immediately after King’s announcement.
<<snipped>>
“While I [Pingree] have been humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support encouraging me to run, I’m going to continue thinking very carefully about whether or not I should enter this race, and will take all the factors into consideration before deciding how I can best serve the people of Maine,” she added.

She is expected to decide in the coming days.
http://atr.rollcall.com/maine-king-ente ... ss-unease/

Unlike Real Clear Politics who rates this race as "Leans Democratic", Roll Call rates it as a Toss Up.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:16 am 
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With whom would King caucus if elected?

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:21 am 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
With whom would King caucus if elected?


I was wondering about that myself. I'll ask around.

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 Post subject: US Senate: Maine
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:05 am 
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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
With whom would King caucus if elected?

We may not yet know whom King wants to caucus with, but we now know which party his supporters want him to caucus with should he be elected.
Public Policy Polling wrote:
62% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of King to only 24% with a negative one. His appeal crosses party lines- he's at his most popular with Democrats (74/14), but he's almost as well liked with independents (69/20). And even with Republicans he's above water at 43/38.
<<snipped>>
King's supporters are pretty clear on which side they'd want him to take in the Senate: 51% say they would want him to caucus with the Democrats to only 25% who would want him to go with the Republicans.
<<snipped>>
If King wasn't running, Pingree would be the strong favorite to replace Olympia Snowe. 52% of Democrats want her to be the party nominee, compared to only 28% for John Baldacci and 11% for Matt Dunlap. And she would lead all of the potential Republican candidates we tested in the general election by margins ranging anywhere from 12 to 21 points.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Attachment:
US Senate ME 2012-03-07.JPG

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3142.html
No surprise, Real Clear Politics has moved the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up".

I too am interested hearing what Skeppie has found out.


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