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 Post subject: Unemployment Measures
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:10 pm 
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Over in the FR thread, Fogbowers discussed the difference between U3 and U6 measures of employment, underemployment, and unemployment. The John Birch Society house organ, "Human Events," offers its own measure:

The True Unemployment Rate: 36% -- Workforce participation is the metric that really matters
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What is the current percentage of working-age Americans, eligible to participate in the civilian labor force, but not currently working? Answer: 36.3 percent.

That’s the worst labor participation rate in three decades, and it’s part of the worst employment picture we’ve seen since the Great Depression. Labor force participation is the number we should really be looking at, even more than the unemployment figures cooked up on the monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those figures have their uses as well, but it seems reasonable to measure the overall health of the economy by the number of people who simply are not participating in the labor force.

This would always be a much higher number than the BLS unemployment statistic, even when the economy was humming along at maximum power. There are always going to be working-age people who drop out of the labor force, for reasons that have nothing to do with the nation’s overall economic health. The labor force participation rate hasn’t exceeded 67 percent in the past decade, so we would be looking at a true “unemployment” number that bounces between roughly thirty and forty percent. The difference between good and bad percentages is relatively small, which makes the true “unemployment” figure less sexy for news coverage, and therefore less useful to politicians… but it’s more logical to measure small changes in a large, accurate number than big changes in a small, largely fantastic number.

Writing at Red State, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who chairs the House Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs, Stimulus Oversight, and Government Spending, offers an eye-popping chart measuring the effect of President Obama’s “stimulus” policies on workforce participation:


Notice that the Y-axis has been constrained so as to show the maximum impact. Also, note that the X-axis is similarly constrained to the last decade. There is no historical context here.

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 Post subject: Unemployment
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:29 pm 
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Also how are they measuring "...eligible to participate in the civilian labor force, but not currently working?" If they include women in the home, then sure I could believe that 36% statistic but its very misleading. That could include Callista Gingritch.

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 Post subject: Unemployment Measures
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:48 pm 
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It probably does include Callista Gingrich.

This is a statistic that will keep falling as the population ages. The graph shown appears to be for anyone aged 16 and over. People need to be comparing age groups (such as 25-54 and 54 and older) in one period to those age groups in another period and graphing the differences (which could be positive or negative), not the absolutes.

See Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity" and Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce.

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"Someone should tell Mrs. Reagan that young people -- not even young people on drugs -- are not the ones responsible for the major problems besetting the world!" John Irving, A Prayer for Owen Meany: A Novel, p. 370.


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 Post subject: Unemployment Measures
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 6:39 pm 
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Be nice to Tiffany-Callista GIngrich. She is singlehandedly employing about a dozen jewellery makers at several high line stores in D.C. And it will all trickle down, in SantorumGoogle it-like fashion to the little people.

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