Booman does not see last night as very significant. The big prise is Super Tuesday and how it would have efected the votes there, and frankly its not looking good for Romney. Nate Silver puts the chances of the big states like this
Georgia (76 delegates): Gingrich (86% chance of win)
Ohio (66 delegates): Santorum (78% chance of win)
Oklahoma (43 delegates): Santorum (96% chance of win)
Tennessee (58 delegates): Santorum (93% chance of win)
Virginia (49 delegates): Romney (94% chance of win)
Rimneys big hope was knocking out the rest of the field by super tuesday, and then turning his citizens united money on Obama. Now he is stuck focusing his fire on MrNewtron and Frothy for the forseeable future. Santa Crawls is a horrible candidate,. he makes me cringe looking at him, and the other is NEWT FREAKING GINGRITCH who already lost the mantle of Anyone but romney but somehow got it back.
The fact is if Romney cant win the south, the GP heartland then he is in trouble.
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/2/29/105322/007Quote:
Looking at the present situation, though, it doesn't look very good for Romney. Of the five biggest prizes on Super Tuesday, Romney stands to win just one of them, in a state (Virginia) where his two main rivals are not even on the ballot. He will enjoy the delegates he gains in New England, but he'll get no credit for them. And he'll probably come in third place in Georgia, which is the biggest prize of all. I can't predict how the delegates were be distributed without investigating each state's rules and doing more analysis, but if the states were based on winner take all, and Romney were to win all the small states, he'd win the night by about 223-167-76. That might seem good, but he has no guarantee of winning all the small states and he won't benefit from winner-take-all in all of them. It's more likely to be closer to a tie when the allocations are made. And then there is that calendar.
On March 10, Kansas votes, along with Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands. If results so far in Colorado and Missouri are any indication, Santorum will win Kansas. I don't know that anyone really cares who wins the rest of these contests.
On March 13, Alabama, Mississippi, Hawai'i, and American Samoa vote. If results in South Carolina and the Florida panhandle, and polls in Georgia are any indication, Gingrich will win Alabama and Mississippi. Romney will probably win the pacific islands because nothing is less Polynesian than Rick Santorum's attitude. But, still, the big prizes will go to Gingrich.
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Then we get to the next really important contest. On March 20, Illinois votes. They have 69 delegates. Can Romney do what he failed to do in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and (most likely) Ohio? Can he win a big midwestern state where the trees aren't just the right height?
In my view. Gingrich is the weaker of the 3 simply because he has less money to burn away. Once the money runs out its over for him. I have no idea who is financing Santorum (I think we all could make some good guesses) But the fact is that sucess breeds money as you can go to donors and say that you are the guy thats winnong contests.
Romney has the advantage that he has a lot more money on hand and in the post citizens united era thats what counts. But he ha sburnt up a hell of a lot of money so far and so far he is just about batting even. How long before he is putting his own money on the line here? How long before his donors start drying up? Success breeds money and for the next few weeks the dalander is just not good for him.