Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
For those who don't believe Santorum could possibly be the Republican nominee, I suggest you read about the 1964 Republican primary season. That one also had several big name Republicans fall by the wayside. It ended differently from what many predicted in February 1964.
The Wikipedia article on the 1964 race for the Republican nomination could be written almost word-for-word about today, with only substitutions of names:
Quote:
The Republican Party was divided in 1964 between its conservative and moderate-liberal factions. Former Vice-President Richard Nixon, who had been beaten by Kennedy in the extremely close 1960 presidential election (subsequently losing the 1962 election for Governor of California) decided not to run. Nixon, a moderate with ties to both wings of the GOP, had been able to unite the factions in 1960; in his absence the way was clear for the two factions to engage in an all-out political civil war for the nomination. Barry Goldwater, a Senator from Arizona, was the champion of the conservatives. The conservatives had historically been based in the American Midwest, but beginning in the 1950s the conservatives had been gaining in power in the South and West. The conservatives favored a low-tax, small federal government which supported individual rights and business interests and opposed social welfare programs. The conservatives also resented the dominance of the GOP's moderate wing, which was based in the Northeastern United States. Since 1928 the Eastern moderates had successfully defeated conservative presidential candidates at the GOP's national conventions. The conservatives believed the Eastern moderates were little different from liberal Democrats in their philosophy and approach to government. Goldwater's chief opponent for the Republican nomination was Nelson Rockefeller, the Governor of New York and the longtime leader of the GOP's liberal-moderate faction. When Rockefeller was knocked out of the race by Goldwater, the party's moderates and liberals turned to William Scranton, the Governor of Pennsylvania, in the hopes that he could stop Goldwater.
The candidates who fell by the wayside:
Nelson Rockefeller, Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., William Scranton, Harold Stassen, and others.
The potential candidates who chose not to run:
Richard M. Nixon, Everett Dirksen, Mark Hatfield, George Romney, and others.
Did the Goldwater debacle put the Republican Establishment back in the driver's seat? By one criterion yes: Richard Nixon was nominated in 1968 and won, overcoming the third-party threat of George Wallace. Jimmy Carter served a single term, but then Ronald Reagan was nominated and won.
There is reason to fear a Santorum nomination
and reason not to count on a Goldwater debacle.