The NoteQuote:
Barack Obama moved to an advantage against Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney among all Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, but the match-up tightens among registered voters – underscoring the importance of turnout in the still far-off 2012 election. ...
GENERAL – In a general-election matchup, Obama-Romney stand at 51-44 percent among all adults, compared with 47-47 percent in early June. Among registered voters, it’s 49-47 percent now, vs. 46-49 percent in June.
Obama looks to have turned the budget debate to his advantage; as reported in previously released results from this poll, his position on the deficit is more broadly popular, he’s taking less heat than the GOP for unwillingness to compromise and he’s got a sizable lead in the view that he cares more about protecting the middle class.
In Obama vs. Romney, the main change is among independents, the key swing voters in national elections. They divided by 44-48 percent Obama-Romney in June, vs. 52-42 percent now. Obama also is doing better now than a month ago among white Catholics (another swing voter group), women, moderates and middle- to upper-middle income earners. Notably, Romney’s lead among “angry” Americans has narrowed considerably – a 53-point margin vs. Obama last month, a 32-point margin now.
Other potential GOP nominees tested in this survey are at or near the customary baseline vote for either party’s candidate, 40 percent. It’s 53-41 percent for Obama vs. Paul, 55-38 percent vs. Perry and 56-39 percent vs. Bachmann. (The results are similar among registered voters – 52-43, 53-40, 55-40.)