Mikedunford wrote:
kate520 wrote:
I'm not normally a paranoid person, but between TEPCO, the Japanese government's reluctance to be absolutely forthcoming to its citizens from the beginning and this
little gemwhich has only been common knowledge for about 5 years, I hear all the official pronouncements about how safe we are here on the west coast, in Alaska and Hawaii as though under a pile of salt. I hate it.
Can someone make me feel better?
If the worst case happens, and multiple reactors there catastrophically explode, breaching the core and containment, the physics of the situation say that HI and AK are fine. That doesn't change even if every last thing TEPCO is saying about the current situation is a lie.
The physics of the reactor design also say that even a worst-case explosion will not spread contamination as far as Chernobyl did. That prediction is also based as much on our understanding of physics as anything else. It would be extremely bad for the local area - possibly worse than Chernobyl in some ways - but much less severe beyond the immediate vicinity of the plant.
However, even if all of that is wrong, the distance is still so great that areas as far away as Hawaii and Alaska are unlikely to be severely affected.
Physicists have been wrong before, and often, and often spectacularly. But they'd have to be wrong in a lot of different ways simultaneously for the US to see a significant impact from this.
If some of these spent rods (with plutonium) catch fire, the local contamination will be significant. Some die-hard pro-nuclear scientists even claim plutonium does not disperse at all (at a given moment someone even tried to put that in the Wikipedia article on the Fukushima disaster), but that is probably a myth - how far it dispers while burning with other stuff (excluding graphite, excluding graphite ...) seems to be a matter for educated guessing at the moment. Judging from discussions (eg at the Guardian forum, where mathematicaians and meteorologists have tried to stop the pro-nuclear lobby from dominating the scientific debate) an educated guess would be no more than 15% of the Chernobel dispersion rate. Anything further away than 300 miles should be OK.
Note that breathing radioactivity and consuming radioactive particles is not at all the same thing. Someone should tell Ann Coulter before she volunteers to be one of the "firefighters" dousing the reactors and the pools.
Any alarms going off beyond 300 miles now must certainly be due to people (and luggage) that have recently been too close to the plant. Give it another week and food from Japan's central island will start doing that too, but the risk of actual particles getting outside the zone this way is very, very small.
Any comparison to Chernobyl is obviously irrelevant now. The worst case scenario is for horrible contamination locally, significantly worse than the local contamination near Chernobyl - but no clouds that could contaminate Hawaii or Alaska if their passing coincides with rain (or snow), fixing radioactive particles in the soil for thousands of years.
They will have to invent another scale for measuring nuclear
catastrophes disasters accidents incidents - overhere in Western Europe but outside the UK, Fukushima has been considered a six for four days already.