Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

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Joseph Robidoux III
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:32 pm

NOTICE OF SPECIAL ELECTION


FOR THE OFFICE OF


UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, DISTRICT 13

WHEREAS, the Governor of the State of Florida, under and by virtue of Sections 100.101 and 100.141, Florida Statutes, has called a Special Election for filling the vacancy of the office of United States House of Representatives, District 13, and has also called a Special Primary Election for selecting nominees of the recognized political parties for such election, and





WHEREAS, the dates for such Special Primary and General Elections have been fixed by the Governor as follows:





[tab=100]Special Primary: January 14, 2014[tab=300]Special General: March 11, 2014


[/break1]dos.state.fl.us/special-elections/pdf/US_H13_Notice_of_Election.pdf]http://election.dos.state.fl.us/special ... ection.pdfThe GOP race to replace the late Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) has become a political soap opera that could jeopardize Republicans’ hold on the seat.





Democrats quickly cleared the field for former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, but Republicans have endured weeks of infighting between lobbyist David Jolly, a former Young staffer, and state Rep. Kathleen Peters that will culminate when primary voters head to the polls on Jan. 14.





Jolly has raised twice as much as Peters for the race, and with the state legislator’s campaign floundering, state and national observers expect it’s Jolly who will be victorious Tuesday.


[/break1]com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/194716-drama-roils-race-to-replace-rep-bill-young-in-florida]http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/sen ... in-floridaSink has raised more cash and has more cash on hand than both Republicans combined.


[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/01/02/alex-sink-has-big-cash-lead-in-florida-special-election/]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... -election/





The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index lists FL 13 as R+1 even though Pres Obama won the district by 2% in 2012.


[/break1]com/file/2013-04-47.pdf]http://cookpolitical.com/file/2013-04-47.pdf



Joseph Robidoux III
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Jan 15, 2014 1:09 am

David Jolly won the Republican primary and will face Democrat Alex Sink in the March 2014 general election to complete the term of Bill Young. Jolly bested two other Republicans, state Rep. Kathleen Peters and retired Marine Brig. Gen. Mark Bircher, a political newcomer backed by former congressman Allen West (R-Fla.). The Associated Press called the race for Jolly with more then nine in 10 precincts reporting. He led the way with 45 percent of the vote.[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/01/14/david-jolly-wins-gop-nomination-in-florida-special-election/]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... -election/Allen West endorsements are becoming as valuable as Caribou Barbie's. :-({|=



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#3

Post by SueDB » Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:39 am

David Jolly won the Republican primary and will face Democrat Alex Sink in the March 2014 general election to complete the term of Bill Young. Jolly bested two other Republicans, state Rep. Kathleen Peters and retired Marine Brig. Gen. Mark Bircher, a political newcomer backed by former congressman Allen West (R-Fla.). The Associated Press called the race for Jolly with more then nine in 10 precincts reporting. He led the way with 45 percent of the vote.[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/01/14/david-jolly-wins-gop-nomination-in-florida-special-election/]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... -election/Allen West endorsements are becoming as valuable as Caribou Barbie's. :-({|=It figures, West would back a Bircher. =)) =)) =))


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SPen
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#4

Post by SPen » Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:58 pm

The DCCC just released an internal showing Alex Sink leading David Jolly 49-44, responding to some local polls (with poor methodologies) showing Jolly had built a small lead after the GOP primary raised his name recognition in the district. Both the DCCC and the NRCC are making some big ad-buys to help out their candidates.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#5

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:02 pm

Democrats have a good opportunity to flip a US House seat that has been Republican for years.In the hard-fought and nationally watched campaign, 42 percent would vote for Sink, 35 percent for Jolly and 4 percent for Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby, according to an exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF Public Media poll of likely voters in Congressional District 13. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.Independent voters have the potential to play a big role in the race. According to the Pinellas Supervisor of Elections, about 37.1 percent of district voters are Republicans, 34.7 percent are Democrats and 24 percent have "no party affiliation." (The rest belong to smaller political parties.) The poll found that independents aren't leaning strongly in either direction. Thirty-three percent of independents backed Sink, 27 percent backed Jolly, 9 percent backed Overby and 23 percent were undecided.[/break1]tampabay.com/news/politics/national/poll-slight-lead-for-sink-over-jolly-in-pinellas-congressional-race/2165327]http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/n ... ce/2165327



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#6

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:11 pm

How jolly to see another R sink.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#7

Post by SPen » Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:40 pm

The special election will be very close. Alex Sink is the better candidate, and she's considerably outraised Jolly, but most of the outside money that's come into the race has been in support of him (or attacking her). If she can somehow pull off a win though it should blunt this ridiculous fact-free narrative that 2014 is shaping up to be another 2010. So far about 39,000 votes have come in already. Republicans returned about 42%, Democrats returned about 39%, and other voters returned about 18%. This looks like it could be good news for Sink because, in percentage terms, Dems are trailing in turnout by less than they were in 2012 when Obama carried the district. Those independent, "other voters" tend to vote more Democratic so if Democrats show up and vote on the date of the special election then Sink should win this.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#8

Post by Foggy » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:44 am

I find it's helpful for me to see a map of the district we're discussing.https://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/ ... /FL-13.jpg



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#9

Post by MN-Skeptic » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:19 pm

Tampa Bay Times article -





[/break1]tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/ppp-poll-alex-sink-48-david-jolly45-lucas-overby-6/2169464]PPP poll: Alex Sink 48%, David Jolly45%, Lucas Overby 6%





A new Public Policy Polling survey for tomorrow’s special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District finds that Democrat Alex Sink is holding a 48-45 lead over her Republican opponent David Jolly, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 6%.





Key findings from the survey include:





-Sink has amassed a large lead during the early voting period, getting 52% among those who have already voted to just 45% for Jolly. We find that 60% of those who say they will vote have done so already, putting Jolly in a position where he will have to make up a lot of ground on election day.





-Sink is overcoming the district’s Republican registration advantage by overwhelmingly winning independent voters. She is getting 61% with them to only 27% for Jolly.


A bit more at the link above.



SPen
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#10

Post by SPen » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:23 pm

It's going to be a close one. The GOP has about a 4% registration edge on the ballots so far, but Obama carried the district in 2012 when the GOP had a 6% edge.Get ready for a close one.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#11

Post by Highlands » Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:08 am

Plus, it's Florida. Sternsigging elections since 2000.


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Joseph Robidoux III
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#12

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:35 pm

The Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections estimated voter turnout at 36.3 percent at 4 p.m. That includes the unofficial early voting turnout of 27.5 percent and 8.8 percent turnout so far at the polls.The race between Republican David Jolly and Democrat Alex Sink has garnered national attention and prompted contributions of an unprecedented $12 million in campaign funds. A third candidate, Libertarian Lucas Overby, is also on the ballot. More than 125,000 voters already had turned in ballots as of Monday. Over 53,000 of those were registered Republicans, while over 48,000 were registered as Democrats. Polling locations will be open today from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. More information is available at votepinellas.com.[/break1]tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/polls-open-as-pinellas-voters-select-cw-bill-youngs-replacement-in-congress/2169602]http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/e ... ss/2169602The first sentence captured my attention. The early voting numbers and the vote-at-the-booth numbers would likely be reversed in any election in Missouri.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#13

Post by GreatGrey » Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:00 pm

Guess we can now move this to The Florida Man thread.

Attached files


I am not "someone upthread".
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#14

Post by June bug » Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:05 pm

Dammit! :((



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#15

Post by mimi » Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:15 pm

yep.





David Jolly elected to represent Pinellas County in Congress





By Alex Leary, Curtis Krueger and Anna M. Phillips, Times Staff Writers





Tuesday, March 11, 2014 7:40pm





[/break1]tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/david-jolly-elected-to-represent-pinellas-county-in-congress/2169727]http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/e ... ss/2169727



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#16

Post by DaveMuckey » Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:32 pm

It seems too early.



Joseph Robidoux III
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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#17

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:25 pm

Unofficial results from the Florida Secretary of State :D avid Jolly........89,099....48.52%Alex Sink.........85,642....46.64%Lucas Overby......8,893.....4.84%Disappointing not to flip a US House seat that had been Republican for over 40 years. Realistic opportunities like that don't happen every election cycle.I doubt Lucas Overby raised or spent anywhere near 5% of the cash raised by Jolly or Sink. Overby made a very respectful showing.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#18

Post by SPen » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:53 pm

It's been going for the GOP for 58 years actually. And yeah, Overby posted a pretty decent showing because he fit well with the district. Typically Independents decide who gets the nod in the 13th and Overby received a lot of positive press for his debate performances and media availabilities. It's just further evidence that the moderates on the political spectrum like candidates who support same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization. Don't be discouraged by the loss. The big batch of absentee ballots was R+4 and Sink won them by 2.5%. It's just incredibly difficult to win low-turn special elections when your party is in the White House, let alone all the Democratic-specific problems with turnout. This is a 50/50 district that's trending the Democrats' way, and it'll trend a whole lot faster once the GOP's gerrymandering gets struck down in court and the whole of St. Pete will get restored to the 13th. That turns Obama's 1-point win in 2012 into nearly a 10-point win, and David Jolly is just too weak to hold such a district for the GOP.



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Special Election 2014/03/11 -- FL-13: Balance of Bill Young's Term

#19

Post by Addie » Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:51 am

[link]Politico,http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/a ... html?hp=l4[/link]





Alex Sink won’t run again in Florida district





Former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who lost to Republican David Jolly in the special election in Florida’s 13th District last month, will not run again for the seat—a big blow to Democrats, who now have no obvious recruit in the competitive St. Petersburg-area seat. ...





Sink also said she “remain totally convinced” that the seat is a feasible target for Democrats this fall, and that she’ll help the eventual Democratic nominee. ...





Back in March, Israel said the DCCC was looking to recruit Sink for a rematch, saying Democrats “will do everything, I mean everything, to support in that endeavor.”





There’s no apparent successor to Sink on the Democratic side, and the party will have to find a new candidate ahead of the May 2 filing deadline.


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