It seemed to me the big change came in 2008, when reported deaths doubled and spread all over the country. It's been up, up and away since. But nobody really knows. You see numbers ranging from 15,000 to 60,000 to 150,000 dead. Between the
narcos suppressing the press through fear and murder of journalists and the current PRI government suppressing the press by refusing to release specifics at all, it's anybody's guess. Statistics taken from Calderon's time were only the ones they could identify. They couldn't count, for instance, bodies melted in acid baths or mass graves out in no man's land. Pena Nieto's government has generally resisted issuing statistics, (or names of narcos arrested or what cartel they are associated with), though the national statistical institute has released a few reports. Nobody believes the numbers. Who would?
The only killings the Mexican press will cover now are the ones that take place in such a public fashion that social media publicizes them and the newspapers can't ignore them. Recently, in a lovely state capital right in the centro, for example, 700 shots are fired into a bar, lasting about a half hour. The city is full of cops and military, right there, literally minutes away from the scene, who didn't show up until it was all over and the shooters had time to collect their bodies and escape. It took almost the whole of the next day, after YouTube videos taken by nearby citizens spread far and wide, before the newspapers posted a word about it, reporting a single death from 700 bullets. Then you have locals counting 78 bodies in an incident in some town, while the press reports two bodies. The whole thing is crazy when you're talking about criminals who can kidnap, murder and dismember an entire 18-piece orchestra. Well, 17, because one got away.
Currently, the war is for territory, and to dominate a global business, so legalizing drugs in the US may be a fine idea, but it means something less than it used to. Probably the PRI will strike a deal with one cartel to lay off the civilians, if they haven't already struck that deal, and faciliate the disappearance of the competition. A complication is that it's not just drugs anymore. The cartels and subsidiary gangs have gotten into everybody's pockets. If you're a taxi driver and don't want to kick back, you're dead. If you sell ears of corn on a corner and don't want to kick back, you're dead. If you're an honest cop and want to stay that way, you're dead or your family's dead. If they want your house for something they take it. If they want your children, they take them. If you are an engineer or scientist, they will kidnap and imprison you to do the work they want done. It's all so huge and deep, any proposed solutions seem like chimera.