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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:19 pm 
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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:22 am 
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Connected story to the link that ZekeB posted (same author, even):
Quote:
More weather disasters ahead, climate experts report
Some locations will become 'increasingly marginal as places to live'

WASHINGTON — Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the Northeast U.S. to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often. And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press.

The final draft of the report from a panel of the world's top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars. The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become "increasingly marginal as places to live."

The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda.

It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases.

Full article can be found at: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45114342/ns/us_news-environment/#.TrJpUfQr2nA

This has been one crazy year in weather... and it's only going to get crazier from here.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:59 pm 
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Justin is absolutely right from everything that I have read. The forthcoming IPCC report will be derided by climate change deniers and by those who know perfectly well that it is real and serious but are not willing to cut their profits by contributing to its alleviation.

"Climate change" does not mean global warming, and it has never meant global warming. I suspect that the few climate scientists who referred to the changes as global warming have come to regret using that terminology. However, Al Gore set very firmly in the public mind that it is all about global warming, particularly with his cherry picker stunt in his stupid film. It is hard to overcome the effects of that film.

On the other hand, it may simply be an odd La Niña that accounted for October's snowfall in the Northeast. The ENSO phenomenon is much older and probably more stable than is modern climate change. It will prove very difficult to disentangle the cyclical phenomena (ENSO, droughts) from the transient phenomena (weather) from long-term climate changes. Our children will probably still be arguing about what they are seeing and how much of it is attributable to human actions.

That is why I have found it much more effective to argue issues of pollution, health, dependency on other countries, and other immediately obvious undesirable things than to try to argue that we should make major economic changes because of present and future climate change. Even little steps to improve Beijing's air or preserve habitat for endangered species or reduce the amount of waste from our motors and lights will add up to significant effects on climate change. They will not stop climate change; they can only alleviate it a bit. We do have to start somewhere.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:28 pm 
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TollandRCR wrote:
That is why I have found it much more effective to argue issues of pollution, health, dependency on other countries, and other immediately obvious undesirable things than to try to argue that we should make major economic changes because of present and future climate change. Even little steps to improve Beijing's air or preserve habitat for endangered species or reduce the amount of waste from our motors and lights will add up to significant effects on climate change. They will not stop climate change; they can only alleviate it a bit. We do have to start somewhere.


I have no basis to judge the science except to notice the consensus. The proof by behavior I find most convincing is the intense interest of the reinsurance market and their obviously climate-related strategies. Reinsurance is huge money and they don't move unless something is real.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:59 pm 
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Given the old saying about how fast New England or the Plains weather can change, this is not evidence of the validity of climate change theory and research. However,

Duluth News Tribune January 6, 2012 High-temperature records fall as winter fails to show in the Northland
Quote:
Many of us in the Northland consider winter to last from about deer season to the state hockey tournament — November through March. For the National Weather Service, winter is officially December through February.

Either way you figure it, we’re nearly halfway through the season and there’s not much sign of winter showing up at all. An entire society geared toward skiing, skating, sliding, shoveling and bundling against life-threatening wind chills has had to adapt to a winter normally seen in places like Des Moines.

On Thursday, the high hit 48 degrees at Duluth International Airport, breaking the previous record of 40 set in 1984 and a whopping 25 degrees above normal. It was the second record-warm day of the season, following 43 degrees on Dec. 26. Those are highs not usually seen here until April.

The Accuweather forecast low for Duluth for tonight is 22 degrees F, the same as is forecast for north central Connecticut. There is no snow on the ground here, although some streams have icy edges. We might get an inch of snow on Wednesday. Tuesday Jan. 17 it might get down to -9 degrees, with some snow on the next day. This is, so far, a weird winter.

What drives our cold is the position of the jet stream, which tends to be south of us and to be pulling in bitterly cold Arctic air. The jet stream has been split for a few days, with its northern branch passing directly over us. The Arctic is still very cold, but there are significant anomalies in the temperatures in far northern latitudes. NOAA's map of the anomalies:



Ski resorts are hurting. This is a picture of skiers on manufactured snow at a Maine resort. What is important is what is not off to the sides.



In New Hampshire for the primary:

Quote:
MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 7, 2012 — To a veteran political reporter who has covered the last seven New Hampshire primaries, this 2012 edition is different from all the others: There is no snow on the ground.

Unbelievable.

This is the Granite State – a winter sports mecca where hardy natives shrug off a blinding blizzard as a minor inconvenience. So to see green lawns, bare sidewalks and unfrozen lakes just two weeks after Christmas makes you want to keep pushing the reset button. Something is wrong with this picture.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:07 pm 
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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:40 pm 
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Went for a walk today in a fleece jacket. No gloves, No hat. Unheard of in January in River City. We are coming up on what should be the coldest weeks of the year. We should be seeing lows in the single digits, but the forecast is for lows in the high teens. Very concerning.


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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:14 am 
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Of course I have no idea and no information as to whether the following is either truly likely, let alone imminent. But it has concerned me since climate change became detectable that the planet's interlocking systems of atmospheric circulation, chemistry, ocean currents and chemistry, seasonal shifts, atmospheric layering, etc., could be prone when stressed to 'tipping points' characteristic of chaotic systems. Which could mean periods of extremely rapid change, easily detectable as "weather" on human time-scales. Certainly studies have shown that icecap, ice pack, and glacial melt is subject to various accelerative effects, as is lake freshwater depletion.

Like I said, a couple weeks in December/January, in one corner of the globe, is far from deterministic. But it's worrying.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:25 pm 
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By this time of year, the high passes in Yosemite are closed to traffic due to snow. This is the way it's been since they started keeping records in 1933.

As of today, it's still open because the peaks that should be covered in a blanket of white are pretty much barren.

http://blog.sfgate.com/stienstra/2012/0 ... os/#2434-1

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:50 pm 
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I bet everybody out there is already worried about water too.


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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:53 pm 
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kimba wrote:
I bet everybody out there is already worried about water too.


Let's just say when state water department folks went out to measure the snow pack, there wasn't really anything to measure.

And since we depend on the snow melt for a large portion of our water, drought restrictions are sure to be forthcoming unless we get some really heavy rain and snow here soon.

But remember, kids, there's no such thing as climate change! ](*,)

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:03 pm 
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Sacramento sets January record for consecutive days of 60 degrees or above

The month has begun with a record nine straight days of daytime highs reaching 60 degrees or more in Sacramento.


http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/10/417664 ... ecord.html

Yesterday evening I spotted a pair of Bridled Titmouses in the tree out front. This is Sacramento. Their range is Mexico and a little bit of southern Arizona and New Mexico...

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:18 pm 
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I keep tabs on the California Department of Water Resources page on Snow Water Content, which tracks the depth of the Sierra snow pack over what was formerly termed the "rainy season".

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

A wet year (1982-83) is shown as a blue dashed line. A dry year (1976-77) is shown as a brown dashed line. The average over many years is shown as the smooth dotted black curve. Last year (2010-11) was pretty wet and is in green.

This year (2011-12) is in hot pink. It has flat-lined. This year will be worse than 1976-77 unless we start getting rain.


Here's the Lake Shasta storage level:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=SHA

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:31 am 
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Sequoia32 wrote:
...Yesterday evening I spotted a pair of Bridled Titmouses in the tree out front. This is Sacramento. Their range is Mexico and a little bit of southern Arizona and New Mexico...

It has long been predicted that climate change would result in subtropical animal and insect (and some plant) species migrating into the temperate zone and tropical species migrating into the subtropical zone. This could be an instance of that. That migration is occurring faster than was expected just a decade ago. What is striking, however, is that this Sacramento event occurred in what is supposed to be winter in the temperate zone!

I expect to see the American Petroleum Institute ramp up their anti-scientific advertising, although for a few months that will primarily be in support of the Keystone XL pipeline and will secondarily seek to sow doubts about climate change. News reports have it that those ads will threaten President Obama if he does not approve the pipeline in February, with the "loss of jobs" and "forfeiture of energy independence" being the main claims. The American Coal Council will continue to claim the impossible: clean energy from burning of coal.


I am hoping that the next great political movement on climate change will arise from the ranks of the many thousands of private snow plow owners who have counted upon plowing residential driveways and business parking lots to add substantially to their income. Around here, a lot of people own trucks or heavy-duty pickups for the express purpose of installing a (fairly expensive) snowplow sometime in October and making money through March or April. Add them to the political forces of the reinsurance companies and the ski resort owners, and a movement to mitigate climate change might gain momentum! ;) Seriously, I suspect that climate change deniers will finally be vanquished by businesses that are losing money because of climate change, not by any amount of scientific evidence.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:25 pm 
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http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/1/11/10138/4301

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What is 32 Minutes?

by Steven D
Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 10:21:33 AM EST
Over your GOP primary fix yet? How about something to read of real significance.

Did you know that the US Networks (ABC, NBC and CBS) devoted a grand total of 32 MINUTES and 14 news stories for all of 2011 to the single most important story of this century last year. It's true. Despite all the evidence, despite all the extreme weather events in the world, despite the study by a climate change skeptic (funded in part by the Koch Brothers) that concluded climate researchers had it right all along when they concluded that climate change was caused by all the giga-tons of greenhouse gases human beings are pumping into the atmosphere, 32 minutes of coverage on the US Television networks was all they deemed fit to broadcast. Take a look at how sharply their coverage declined (from Climate Progress) since 2007, the peak year of coverage about the world's climate:

Image

Heck, I've seen way more commercials from BP, Exxon and other oil and gas companies extolling the wonders of natural gas produced by hydrofracking and and gasoline refined from the oil in from Canadian Tar Sands than I've seen coverage about climate change on major network television. Everyday another commercial pops up funded by the fossil fuel industry. Not hard to figure out who is paying the bills for the bread and circuses television industry. Still, 32 MINUTES of coverage? That's all? Our world's climate is headed for a full on boil, the predictions the climate models made regarding droughts, extreme precipitation events, wildfires, heat waves, famines, etc. are coming true (if anything they were too conservative) and that's it? Thirty-two effing minutes?

Not that the major print media in America is doing a whole lot better.

...

And remember a lot of that coverage, such as it was, was biased against the reality of man-made climate change. For example, check out this article, on Real Climate from February 2010, IPCC errors: facts and spin about the media lies and distortions that turned a few minor errors in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report on Climate into a major media generated scandal that attempted to discredit all the thousands of climate research studies and the mounds of evidence supporting the consensus view that human beings and their activity are primarily responsible for the rapid changes to our climate. Or check out the recent Wall Street Journal's attempts to mislead and deny the Earth Surface Temperature Study study (BEST) funded by climate deniers such the Koch brothers that confirmed climate researchers had the facts right all along:


Lots more with links at the link

Personally I admit I am deeply skeptical that anything can be done in the west to stop global warming. The capitalist lobbying system is just too deeply intrenched in the worst offenders to really do anything. In the long term I can see the rise of the Asian countries is where the real technological fight will happen. China is doing some fantastic work even now. But that will probably be too late to avert catastrophe.

Thankfully I don't have any children.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:58 pm 
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In several science fiction scenarios, China sues the United States over its unabated emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG, joined by the many other countries of the developing world that are being harmed by climate change -- more than the U.S. is ever likely to be harmed. In these scenarios, China has several options to make the U.S. pay attention, ranging from adverse action on the U.S. debt to gunboats off the coast of California and worse military threats.

I hope and believe that one part of the capitalist system will split off and fight the part that is now deep in highly cynical climate change denial. As soon as the next quarter's profits appear to be at risk due to climate change, this movement might begin.

It would also be great if institutional stockholders in the most polluting industries were to wake up to their power and exercise it at the boards of directors level. CALPERS and TIAA/CREF acting together could begin to have an effect.

Another thing that might have an effect would be the return of tropical diseases to the U.S. and Western Europe. Foremost among these would be malaria. This is an avoidable tragedy. It is important to remember that malaria was the bane of the Jamestown colony, just as it was of southeast England; it can happen again.

Another thread in science fiction involves the break-up of the U.S. over ecological issues. My favorite book in that tradition is still Ernest Callenbach's Ecotopia, with its prequel, Ecotopia Emerging. The threat of violence by the states forming Ecotopia (northern California, Oregon, and Washington) is an integral part of the story.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:45 pm 
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TollandRCR wrote:
In several science fiction scenarios, China sues the United States over its unabated emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG, joined by the many other countries of the developing world that are being harmed by climate change -- more than the U.S. is ever likely to be harmed. In these scenarios, China has several options to make the U.S. pay attention, ranging from adverse action on the U.S. debt to gunboats off the coast of California and worse military threats.


The reverse is more likely. China is going to be vastly increasing its GHG output over the next generation, and if anything, it is going to be the rest of the world, which may have decreased per capita output, that is going to object to China's output, and that of India and other countries that are likely to undergo rapid industrialization when the global economy improves.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:43 pm 
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A Legal Lohengrin wrote:
The reverse is more likely. China is going to be vastly increasing its GHG output over the next generation, and if anything, it is going to be the rest of the world, which may have decreased per capita output, that is going to object to China's output, and that of India and other countries that are likely to undergo rapid industrialization when the global economy improves.

That was the expectation ten years ago, and it may still be a reasonable expectation. However, China (and India) is already experiencing adverse effects of climate change and seems to be responding rationally. I don't like the Three Gorges Dam or what was the plan to build many nuclear reactors every year (apparently now shelved in the wake of Fukushima). What I do like is that the best photovoltaic solar panels are now being built in China. I do like their exploration of options for storing carbon dioxide. I do like the energy efficiency being built into new structures in their "Eco-cities" plans.

I also like the fact that I have never encountered a climate change denier among Chinese scientists. My sample is undoubtedly skewed in many ways, including in which scientists are permitted to speak with me.

Even though China is growing economically and its people are demanding more automobiles, refrigerators, and large-screen TV's, and bigger, more modern housing units, it will take a very long time for China's per capita emissions to match those of the United States. The U.S. will long continue to be, as it has been for many years, the largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. The sad thing is that we have at least some of the technologies that would reduce our emissions noticeably, starting with improvements in motors and electrical transmission, but such conservation measures seem to be of little importance in the Obama administration.

The lack of U.S. leadership in action on climate change will be a major problem for us as the rest of the world insists that we come out of our denial and start acting. We may well encounter the "polluter pays" principle in a most unpleasant way.

I am not denying that it will greatly matter whether China sticks to what are its announced climate change policies. It could very well become the worst polluter on the planet if its practices do not match its policies and science. That is why I think that democratization is crucial for China's success. If only unbridled economic growth is its practice, you will be right.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:35 am 
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Sequoia32 wrote:
Yesterday evening I spotted a pair of Bridled Titmouses in the tree out front. This is Sacramento. Their range is Mexico and a little bit of southern Arizona and New Mexico...

The Cedar Waxwings never came this year. 14 years in this house and they always show up just before Christmas to eat the berries in our Holly trees. Holly trees still got berries, no Cedar Waxwings. Also, for the second year in a row, the Anna's Hummingbirds have done a bunk.

Rumor has it that we might be in for some rain next week, but we need more than a rumor here in North of SLO Town Orlyfornia. We needs us some rain, but we REALLY need us some snow, and lots of it, in the Sierra Nevada.

Obligatory use of new smiley: :yikes:

Yeah, I just used the last one. I can has ennui.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:43 am 
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Estiveo wrote:
The Cedar Waxwings never came this year. 14 years in this house and they always show up just before Christmas to eat the berries in our Holly trees. Holly trees still got berries, no Cedar Waxwings. Also, for the second year in a row, the Anna's Hummingbirds have done a bunk.

These are complex stories. Do you know anything about the summer and fall habitats of the Cedar Waxwings and the Anna's Hummingbirds and what has happened to those habitats? What you may be seeing is the result of significant reductions in populations, often caused by human destruction of habitats. This might not be a result of climate change; it might be a result of clearing forests for pasture and agricultural land. Hummingbirds seem particularly at risk in some extinction models.

It is the uncontrolled and largely unknown interaction of many environment changes that worries many scientists. Climate change is just one aspect of a sweeping array of changes that began occurring in recent times.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:15 am 
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TollandRCR wrote:
It is the uncontrolled and largely unknown interaction of many environment changes that worries many scientists. Climate change is just one aspect of a sweeping array of changes that began occurring in recent times.

This is true, and central. In many parts of the world, surviving (i.e., non-extinct) species have been reduced to shrunk habitats. In many cases those are just the most resilient species, which could sustain themselves in a reduced range.

Remember the Federally funded study involving tagging bears, that Palin railed against, and that had actually produced results indicating that bear hunting didn't need to be restricted further (which one would have thought the stupid b*tch would have been for)? There aren't enough field biologists or money to do all the studies necessary to understand all this.

But throw in climate change (shifting of climate zones) and it's like shuffling the deck. Different tiers of ecosystem (predator-prey-food source) respond differently. A new temperate range may be suitable seasonally for a migratory species, but have the wrong fruit, or soil chemistry, or different predators. It's not all "bad" (e.g., a bird species may respond to a lengthening season by producing three broods instead two) but we have to resist traditional moralistic labels. Change is uncertain, and impact on humanity unpredictable.

Side note/pet peeve: If the teaching of evolution were permitted to be truly robust in U.S. K-12, I'd wager there'd be more college matriculants excited and engaged in these opportunities for study. I'm not saying it's a conspiracy, but it's a conspiracy -- underpinned by the conservative (in the truest sense of the word) inclination for all things to remain the same or return to how they (supposedly) were.

Things don't remain the same. Same is a lie.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:44 am 
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The late Stephen Schneider often referred to the "great uncontrolled experiment" that humans are conducting on the only planet that we know is capable of supporting human life. It is a multivariable experiment that will likely yield feedback effects, nonlinear responses, and surprises -- and nobody is in charge of the experiment, and nobody knows just how to stop it. It was not an original observation; he credits a 1957 article for first remarking on it:
Quote:
In 1957, Revelle and Suess [R. Revelle and H. Suess, Tellus 9, 18 (1957)] pointed out that we were undergoing a great "geophysical experiment."

I think a little work might trace it back further, perhaps to Arrhenius or to Vladimir Vernadsky and Teilhard de Chardin.

Scientists have recognized for a long time that humanity is having great effects on our earth and the global biogeochemical systems that make all life possible. That was observed in the centuries before scientific method became our most important way of knowing. In Critias, written in the 4th century BCE, Plato observed
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And so, like it is on the small islands, our recent land has become looking like bones of a sick body if compared with the former times: all the fat and soft land has come down and the bold skeleton remained only. In those past times our land was intact, with high hills, and the so called now stony plains had an abundant lush land, the mountains were covered by broad forests. (…) Among our mountains there are such which now feed bees only, but still roofs made of trees cut not very long time ago are preserved there (…), and the land was giving unbelievably rich pasture to the flocks. The water which Zeus was sending was a fruitful one, not like now when it is fading away with no use, flowing to the field out of the bold land.

Attachment:
Plato's hills.jpg


Steve was probably our best representative to the portion of the public that was willing to listen and learn about the environmental changes now underway. He survived a bout of lymphoma and then died of a heart attack while disembarking at Heathrow. No one has replaced him.


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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:32 pm 
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It's snowing in the Midwest, and it may snow here tomorrow! White-outs in the Midwest. A high of 0 and a low of -6 for us Sunday, when most students will be returning from winter break. There are always accidents between I-84 and campus on the first couple of days when they return; because black ice is a possibility Saturday and Sunday, this could get bad.

For those of you living in one of the paradises, black ice is not nice. You cannot see it, and no 4-wheel drive vehicle in the world can stop when it hits black ice. (Studs would help a bit if legal, but they chew up roads.)

So we had Snowtober, otherwise known as Alfred, and now we are going to have ice and snow before all the trees have stopped falling from that early November storm. More trees will come down. Yankees will again have our mettle tested. The best known way of dealing with these storms involves a mug of hot chocolate (Mexican, of course) and some muffins straight from the oven. Others use beverages that the Puritans frowned upon, although they were only too happy to sell rum to England. In either case, a good book is recommended, along with a roaring fire and an Irish setter. Two cats may be substituted at your discretion.

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"Someone should tell Mrs. Reagan that young people -- not even young people on drugs -- are not the ones responsible for the major problems besetting the world!" John Irving, A Prayer for Owen Meany: A Novel, p. 370.


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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:57 pm 
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Stay cozy, Perfessor. The Mexican thing sounds like a good call.

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 Post subject: Climate Change
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:21 pm 
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It's snowing in River City and headed your way Tollie! The temp dropped 20 degrees in 3 hours. The abys are sucking all the heat out of the fireplace and I have an adult beverage.


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