hitch wrote:
Well if we were analyzing any sane candidate all of this would be true. But Palin, like Orly, thinks rules don't apply to her and she has gotten very far acting as if they don't. She burned her way through Wasilla and that got her into statewide politics. Her first run failed but got her appointed to an energy board where she quit after scorching the earth. She finally got elected governor and proceeded with her scorched earth policy which only got her the nod by McCain. She treated him and his campaign as she has everyone else who gave her a leg up, with contempt and disdain and was only concerned with herself and what she could get. That behavior resulted in her gaining a national voice and 20 million and counting. Nothing in this would indicate to Palin that she is not a viable candidate for 2012, in fact I would argue it proves to her her worthiness to be president.
I definitely wouldn't count her out. Nov 2 will be a clear reminder of the insanity of voters and I will be shocked it the house doesn't go Republican and some very FUed people wind up elected to both the senate and the house.
I think the Democrats are making a big mistake with Palin, just like with Reagan. There is a large anti-education, anti-expert, anti-competence strain that runs through the voting population. These folks love Palin for the exact reasons we despise her. Reagan kept running and running and eventually 1980 was his year. Politics have changed and I don't think it will take as long for her to wind up the presidential candidate and that scares the hell out me.
I do see your point. One of the mistakes made in 2008 is that Palin was never vetted and the Repub party insiders fell for Palin because America did (well, some). But We can't compare Palin to Reagan.
1) Reagan had the entire GOP behind him. Palin does not.
No politician wins on their own. The Dems in Alaska say that they fell for Palin because they also didn't vet her; once Troopergate fell open, many in Alaska were shocked. By the time Palin returned to Alaska, her approval rating had tanked by 20%. That is huge.
Now insiders in the Repub party have vetted Palin. Until now, they haven't had a reason to control her. But I cannot imagine that the GOP will put Palin ahead of Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal or even Huckabee? The McCain campaign saw first hand what Palin is like and how she handles pressure. She was an acceptable VP pick because the Repubs were desperate and needed a woman or person of color in order to run against Obama.
If I thought the GOP would stand behind Palin in 2012, I would be frightened and worried. I am still nervous. But Sarah can only win IF the GOP lets her. And they are much, much more cut-throat than the Dem party when it comes to backing a fellow politician. Now Palin has screwed some of the most powerful members of the party. She is difficult and demanding. And most Repubs in power have now experienced that first hand.
I can't imagine Rove, Bush, Cheney, Boehner, etc getting behind Palin enough for her to win the Repub nomination.
2) Reagan was smart and likable. That Dems made an enormous mistake in underestimating Reagan. But had Cater not failed in the WH, Reagan might have had a more difficult time making it through the election. We saw this with McCain; had Bush not fucked up everything he touched, even Obama would have had a tougher time winning the election.
3) Palin is her own worst enemy. She hasn't cleaned up after herself. There is evidence that she has been doing some homework.
4) Palin doesn't want the job. She honestly doesn't.
5) Why was Bush elected? Bush was teamed with Cheney so that the Repubs could control the POTUS. Palin will not be controlled. We have had 2 years to learn that she likes being all "mavericky". Palin doesn't play by the rules. Palin's entire attraction has been based on her unwillingness to be controlled. That was tolerated during 2008 because McCain was a known and respected entity at the time and Palin would have little power unless McCain died. But Palin is a nightmare to work with. She literally went rogue in 2008. She won't be GWBush. Once she has the title and the pen, she will not listen. She will not play with the other Repubs.
6) The economy is improving. And Obama has learned that he can't depend on bipartisanship. More people will have jobs within the next year. The healthcare reforms will be better understood and are, even now, popular.
The Repubs don't need Palin after 2010. They have talented and intelligent party members who have proven their loyalty. They have other viable candidates. The Repubs will not run Palin against Obama.
The Repubs know they can't depend on insane. They will need a sane candidate who can debate Obama. While Bush wasn't a great debated, he was good enough and likable enough to get the people to listen to him during debates. Palin couldn't hold her own when Biden was being gentle with her. I don't know of a single Repub that can out-debate Obama. Palin is the last of the Repub party that would be allowed to debate Obama.
Finally. We have allowed our media to cover those yelling loudest. After Nov 2nd, the media won't have a reason to pay attention to Palin
to the degree that they have. The Tea Party members will settle down a bit. The media has vastly over-covered the Tea Party. And we made the mistake of letting them. The media will attend to the fights in Congress, not the irrelevant fights that Palin tries to pick.
Underestimating Palin would be a mistake in 2012. As would overestimating her and not fighting those we really need to fight; we need to fight the GOP in Congress and the person they truly support.Politicususa has an excellent article:
Quote:
snip.....
As long as the base loves Sarah, she does hold some power. But what Sarah can’t see, as most egomaniacs and narcissists can’t, is reality. The reality is that when the Republican Party is done with her, they will leak information out about her that will sink her ship before she knows what caused the hole.
snip.....
Inner circles of the Republican Party have long been saying they will keep her around as the loss leader for 2012, the candidate who will generate hype and attack Obama and stir up the base. But she won’t be their candidate. If by some stretch of the imagination (or rather, if our economy is not recovered), Palin gets the nomination because her base is the primary base of conservatives, she will be their sacrificial lamb to Obama.
snip.....
Sitting in the dark corner of a DC bar is a Republican political operative who has the goods on Palin. He’s just waiting for his phone to ring with the word, “Go.” If Palin weren’t such a poisonous person, I’d almost feel sorry for her. She has no idea what’s coming her way.
snip.....
She’s been a great tool for disseminating lies about the other party, but she’s out of control. The myth of Sarah was powerful before the American people got to know her. But now that she has shown her mean side, now that they’ve heard her empty attacks and seen the ever-present sneer on her face, Americans are less enamored of the Sarah myth. Many of them, in fact, can’t stand her. Palin’s approval ratings are currently lower than BP’s. Familiarity breeds contempt with people like Palin.
snip.....
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