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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:04 pm 
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LM K wrote:
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I don't think we can possibly consider Orly's polls as remotely accurate. Emken performed 10% better than Orly's polls predicted. Emken performed exactly how the most accurate poll (sorry; I don't have the link!) predicted.

To repeat myself for newcomers, Orly referred several times to the "most accurate polling," by which she meant Scott Rasmussen's robopolling coupled with his proprietary method of selecting "likely voters" and his sampling methods. Placing calls to cell phones by random digit dialing machines is illegal in the U.S., so Rasmussen may have special problems with younger people. In other words, Orly was relying on one of the least-well-documented methods of polling. Polling is a business; only sometimes is it a public service. That holds true for some university-based polling centers: they are intended to be profit centers to support something else. At a minimum, they must be fully self-supporting unless the university is a center for teaching about survey research and is willing to invest in the center as a site for training. Even then, some major survey research centers must be fully self-supporting. People have become quite rich from polling work.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:08 pm 
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LM K wrote:

I don't think we can possibly consider Orly's polls as remotely accurate. Emken performed 10% better than Orly's polls predicted. Emken performed exactly how the most accurate poll (sorry; I don't have the link!) predicted.


Orly went into election day so totally confident she had this win in the bag that she neglected to do any campaigning. I'm guessing the only reason she loaned her "campaign" $280K is because she was confident about being the nominee and making a run in the general election.

But she was certain she'd win. And, like no politician I've ever seen, Orly practically announced her "win" the day before. I think Orly's ability to only see or hear what she wants to see or hear really worked against her. Again.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:14 pm 
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I think that is exactly what happened, JT. Some of the media bought into her BS, but notice that almost no birfers did. OBC was the only birfer site that carried an "Orly is the frontrunner" post in the last couple of days before the primary. For the most part, birfers have learned that she is full of shit with her premature claims of victory.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:10 pm 
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Joseph Robidoux III wrote:
Lets hope Orly doesn't convince Williams and Hughes to drop out of the race and throw their support (and votes) for her.


Don't give her any more :idea: :-$ =)) =))

Go Orly Go, Go Orly Go, Down the Floor and Out the Door! Go Orly Go! =)) =))

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 8:27 pm 
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ObjectiveDoubter wrote:
RTH10260 wrote:

from LOH:
She may be talking about the Postcanvass Risk-limiting Audit Pilot Program.
...
Thanks for locating this statute. Interesting to see how SOS Taitz would have used it, as it was limited for 2011. The report on the audit was expected to be published in March 2012.

Any chance of anyone local to California can pull said report?


I hadn't heard about that program. But for some time, there has been a one percent hand count conducted in each county. It's listed here at #7 in the SoS process:

located at: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_oc.htm

And again we see just how exact Orlena can read: it's one percent of random selected precincts that need to do a manual count. Just clobbering a precinct chief by phone will not get any recount done if they are not among the select few for on this additional task.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 9:01 pm 
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TollandRCR wrote:
LM K wrote:
...
I don't think we can possibly consider Orly's polls as remotely accurate. Emken performed 10% better than Orly's polls predicted. Emken performed exactly how the most accurate poll (sorry; I don't have the link!) predicted.

To repeat myself for newcomers, Orly referred several times to the "most accurate polling," by which she meant Scott Rasmussen's robopolling coupled with his proprietary method of selecting "likely voters" and his sampling methods. Placing calls to cell phones by random digit dialing machines is illegal in the U.S., so Rasmussen may have special problems with younger people. In other words, Orly was relying on one of the least-well-documented methods of polling. Polling is a business; only sometimes is it a public service. That holds true for some university-based polling centers: they are intended to be profit centers to support something else. At a minimum, they must be fully self-supporting unless the university is a center for teaching about survey research and is willing to invest in the center as a site for training. Even then, some major survey research centers must be fully self-supporting. People have become quite rich from polling work.


Also, this is not the first time a poll differed drastically from what happened on Election Day. I remember Harvey Gant was ahead of Jesse Helms by about 10 percent and I believe he came in behind by about 5 percent -- a swing of 15 percent. There are often extenuating circumstances that invalidate polls. In this case, Emken was on virtually every slate mailer as the candidate endorsed by the GOP. That meant that most GOPs got multiple mailings with only her name, not some for one candidate and some for another which is usually the case when there is more than one viable (i.e., with money to spend) candidate. It is quite probable that those responding to the polls were reacting from name recognition only, then once they got ready to vote, read their mail which was overwhelming for Emken and the power of the GOP endorsement in the absence of any other real information. Goodby Orly.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 9:25 pm 
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Election related: the Tobacco Tax. Up, down or too close to call? Also.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 9:58 pm 
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RTH10260 wrote:
Just clobbering a precinct chief by phone will not get any recount done if they are not among the select few for on this additional task.


...contesting 4th place!!

=)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =))

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:53 am 
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neonzx wrote:
:evil: http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=105529 :evil:

Quote:
i need your help in getting names of all 24 members of the CA GOP and their agent for service of Process

Posted on | June 11, 2012 | No Comments

Also, I need your help in getting addresses for service of process of Jon Fleischman and Alan Hoffenblum, two CA GOP attacks dogs, who viciously attacked and defamed me in all the media outlets as apparently as part of the deal was to assassinate my character in order to schield Obama and promote an obedient puppet Emken.


Sue Everybody!


How did the GOP Board members "viciously" attack and defame Orly? Did they speak out against her? Or did they just not nominate her?

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:14 am 
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LM K wrote:
neonzx wrote:
:evil: http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=105529 :evil:

Quote:
i need your help in getting names of all 24 members of the CA GOP and their agent for service of Process

Posted on | June 11, 2012 | No Comments

Also, I need your help in getting addresses for service of process of Jon Fleischman and Alan Hoffenblum, two CA GOP attacks dogs, who viciously attacked and defamed me in all the media outlets as apparently as part of the deal was to assassinate my character in order to schield Obama and promote an obedient puppet Emken.


Sue Everybody!


How did the GOP Board members "viciously" attack and defame Orly? Did they speak out against her? Or did they just not nominate her?

not endorsing her and helping who they endorsed == viciously attacking and defaming her

orly takes your either with me or against me to a whole new level.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:52 am 
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Phil Berg viciously attacked her by not believing in the fake imaginary "two citizen parents" rule (Vattel).



And that was BEFORE he sued her. That was the "most vicious attack" that led her to disclose that Berg's paralegal had 10 felony convictions, and expound on her theory that President Obama the master puppeteer was controlling Phil and Lisa in order for them to be "false leaders" of the eligibility movement.

I think it's a vicious attack if you don't send her money, too. ?(

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:13 am 
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Offtopic :
Hmm, I thought Taitz embraced the whole Vattel thing much later. I thought Berg's original sin was simply having the nerve to file birther cases of his own instead of leaving the entire field to Taitz.

But like the Hatfield-McCoy feud, things can get a little fuzzy over time.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:44 am 
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raicha wrote:
Offtopic :
Hmm, I thought Taitz embraced the whole Vattel thing much later. ...

Offtopic :
That was why I was surprised to see the Vattel argument articulated in one paragraph of her most recent filing. She has focused on "show me your papers, boy" and "criminal in the White People's House" arguments.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:07 pm 
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Offtopic :
'Twas back in April, 2009, when Orly released Dossie #6, which states as follows*:

Quote:
I tried to analyze the instances when Liberi was the most vicious in her attacks towards me and found two distinct areas:

a. Obama’s Natural Born status and definition of it
...
In regards to the Natural Born status, she claimed that she has written pleadings for Phil Berg and that the citizenship of Obama’s father is of no importance. This was repeated time and again when she appeared together with Phil Berg at different radio programs. In reality definition of Natural Born citizen is, that it is one, who is born in the country, with both parents citizens of the country, one that does not have allegiance to any other sovereignty at birth. It appears that it was an effort to sway the public and redirect attention from the most obvious, the fact that Obama’s father was not a citizen of the US and therefore he does not qualify, no matter where he was born. Did someone help Liberi avoid 8 year jail term here in CA in exchange for her efforts to cloud the issue?

See, the reason Phil never claimed both parents have to be US citizens was to protect Lisa from serving the 8 year prison sentence ... and that was one of the "most vicious attacks" against Orly ...

* I'm not sure Dossie No. 6 is still available online. She was posting on Repubx.com when she issued it, but the links seem to be dead. Do we still have a copy anywhere?

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:21 pm 
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DaveMuckey wrote:
Election related: the Tobacco Tax. Up, down or too close to call? Also.


The tobacco companies put a ton of money into ads against it. I don't think I heard any ads in support. And yet...still too close to call. Californians are getting used to the yes vote means defeat wording of some of these propositions and I think I see a bit more sophistication on both sides - voters and promulgators. (mmm, tastes like chicken!)

Will Big Money be disappointed with what they've been able to buy this cycle? We'll see.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:39 pm 
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kate520 wrote:
DaveMuckey wrote:
Election related: the Tobacco Tax. Up, down or too close to call? Also.


The tobacco companies put a ton of money into ads against it. I don't think I heard any ads in support

I did see one or two ads in support of it, and they were well done. But the volume of obfuscating ads opposing it was enormous -- sometimes two in a single commercial break.

And of course, they weren't at all what it was about --- "it creates a new, unaccountable bureaucracy!!! It doesn't require them to spend the research dollars in California!!! Oh my, look! A guy in a white doctor coat opposes it because it's unaccountable!!!! And did we mention bureaucracy??? And it's a tax!!!"

But truthfully, it was easy to tell that it was a "yes" vote for me when the mailers came in. The ones opposed were Philip Morris, convenience and liquor stores, and the California Republican Party.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:59 pm 
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June 12, 2012, 8:11 a.m. -- no change in the rankings

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 136,570 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 139,289 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 287,959 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 548,352 12.8%

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:17 pm 
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So Taitz is still fifth, or as she likes to say it, the 4th challenger to the incumbent.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:35 pm 
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Foggy wrote:
Offtopic :
* I'm not sure Dossie No. 6 is still available online. She was posting on Repubx.com when she issued it, but the links seem to be dead. Do we still have a copy anywhere?


I do.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 5:53 pm 
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Ditto and likewise ... June 12, 2012, 2:16 p.m.

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 136,916 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 139,677 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 288,455 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 549,635 12.7% (Did she sag 0.1%?)

Edit: Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 548,352 12.8%

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 6:16 pm 
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Orly's ranting about the polls is incredibly naive. There is no poll that is going to be accurate when you have some many candidates who are running in the single digits. This is down in the noise level as far as polling goes. It would be reasonable to assume that the party choice Emken would place second such a cluster f---- of a primary. The articles proposing that Taitz might come in second were nothing more than guesses that she would come in second on name recognition for Republicans plus an unknown number of Democratic voters trying to saddle the Republicans with Taitz. I am glad she bought into the high expectations though. It is fun to watch her flail about like a flounder in bucket with five inches of warm water.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:32 pm 
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Reality Check wrote:
Orly's ranting about the polls is incredibly naive. There is no poll that is going to be accurate when you have some many candidates who are running in the single digits. This is down in the noise level as far as polling goes. It would be reasonable to assume that the party choice Emken would place second such a cluster f---- of a primary. The articles proposing that Taitz might come in second were nothing more than guesses that she would come in second on name recognition for Republicans plus an unknown number of Democratic voters trying to saddle the Republicans with Taitz. I am glad she bought into the high expectations though. It is fun to watch her flail about like a flounder in bucket with five inches of warm water.


And I think the media was overly generous to Taitz pre-election, capitalizing on the spectacle that is Orly and trying to cash in.

"Wow, look, whackjob Orly Taitz might actually be the nominee!" not

"Rick Williams has a great chance of contesting the primary."

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:24 am 
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:evil: http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=109362 :evil:
Quote:
Update. Currently candidate for US senate Orly Taitz has nearly 140,000 votes

Posted on | June 13, 2012 | No Comments

Press release

Since June 5th elections night candidate for US senate Orly Taitz gained nearly 30,000 more votes or nearly 30% more votes.

Count will continue until July 13th certification by the Secretary of State of CA

While Taitz flew to the hearing in Indiana, her assistant sent letters to all 58 county registrars advising them that Taitz wants to be present during the mandatory 1% vote count, as well as get verification of eligibility of voters an candidates and veracity of machine count.

Voters and supporters of her legal challengers will be updated regarding further developments.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:37 am 
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So, O'rly thinks she can get around to 58 counties in the remaining few days to personally witness the 1% manual count. Her new assistant seems to be just as out of touch with reality as her boss. When her requests are ignored, she will call it as more proof of corruption and how she would have won in a fair election. ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:07 pm 
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June 13, 2012, 6:32 a.m.

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 140,382 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 142,444 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 293,851 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 562,878 12.8%

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