To repeat myself for newcomers, Orly referred several times to the "most accurate polling," by which she meant Scott Rasmussen's robopolling coupled with his proprietary method of selecting "likely voters" and his sampling methods. Placing calls to cell phones by random digit dialing machines is illegal in the U.S., so Rasmussen may have special problems with younger people. In other words, Orly was relying on one of the least-well-documented methods of polling. Polling is a business; only sometimes is it a public service. That holds true for some university-based polling centers: they are intended to be profit centers to support something else. At a minimum, they must be fully self-supporting unless the university is a center for teaching about survey research and is willing to invest in the center as a site for training. Even then, some major survey research centers must be fully self-supporting. People have become quite rich from polling work.

Orly went into election day so totally confident she had this win in the bag that she neglected to do any campaigning. I'm guessing the only reason she loaned her "campaign" $280K is because she was confident about being the nominee and making a run in the general election.

But she was certain she'd win. And, like no politician I've ever seen, Orly practically announced her "win" the day before. I think Orly's ability to only see or hear what she wants to see or hear really worked against her. Again.

I think that is exactly what happened, JT. Some of the media bought into her BS, but notice that almost no birfers did. OBC was the only birfer site that carried an "Orly is the frontrunner" post in the last couple of days before the primary. For the most part, birfers have learned that she is full of shit with her premature claims of victory.

Don't give her any more

Go Orly Go, Go Orly Go, Down the Floor and Out the Door! Go Orly Go!

And again we see just how exact Orlena can read: it's one percent of random selected precincts that need to do a manual count. Just clobbering a precinct chief by phone will not get any recount done if they are not among the select few for on this additional task.

Also, this is not the first time a poll differed drastically from what happened on Election Day. I remember Harvey Gant was ahead of Jesse Helms by about 10 percent and I believe he came in behind by about 5 percent -- a swing of 15 percent. There are often extenuating circumstances that invalidate polls. In this case, Emken was on virtually every slate mailer as the candidate endorsed by the GOP. That meant that most GOPs got multiple mailings with only her name, not some for one candidate and some for another which is usually the case when there is more than one viable (i.e., with money to spend) candidate. It is quite probable that those responding to the polls were reacting from name recognition only, then once they got ready to vote, read their mail which was overwhelming for Emken and the power of the GOP endorsement in the absence of any other real information. Goodby Orly.

Election related: the Tobacco Tax. Up, down or too close to call? Also.

...contesting 4th place!!

How did the GOP Board members "viciously" attack and defame Orly? Did they speak out against her? Or did they just not nominate her?

not endorsing her and helping who they endorsed == viciously attacking and defaming her

orly takes your either with me or against me to a whole new level.

Phil Berg viciously attacked her by not believing in the fake imaginary "two citizen parents" rule (Vattel).



And that was BEFORE he sued her. That was the "most vicious attack" that led her to disclose that Berg's paralegal had 10 felony convictions, and expound on her theory that President Obama the master puppeteer was controlling Phil and Lisa in order for them to be "false leaders" of the eligibility movement.

I think it's a vicious attack if you don't send her money, too.

The tobacco companies put a ton of money into ads against it. I don't think I heard any ads in support. And yet...still too close to call. Californians are getting used to the yes vote means defeat wording of some of these propositions and I think I see a bit more sophistication on both sides - voters and promulgators. (mmm, tastes like chicken!)

Will Big Money be disappointed with what they've been able to buy this cycle? We'll see.

I did see one or two ads in support of it, and they were well done. But the volume of obfuscating ads opposing it was enormous -- sometimes two in a single commercial break.

And of course, they weren't at all what it was about --- "it creates a new, unaccountable bureaucracy!!! It doesn't require them to spend the research dollars in California!!! Oh my, look! A guy in a white doctor coat opposes it because it's unaccountable!!!! And did we mention bureaucracy??? And it's a tax!!!"

But truthfully, it was easy to tell that it was a "yes" vote for me when the mailers came in. The ones opposed were Philip Morris, convenience and liquor stores, and the California Republican Party.

June 12, 2012, 8:11 a.m. -- no change in the rankings

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 136,570 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 139,289 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 287,959 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 548,352 12.8%

So Taitz is still fifth, or as she likes to say it, the 4th challenger to the incumbent.

I do.

Ditto and likewise ... June 12, 2012, 2:16 p.m.

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 136,916 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 139,677 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 288,455 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 549,635 12.7% (Did she sag 0.1%?)

Orly's ranting about the polls is incredibly naive. There is no poll that is going to be accurate when you have some many candidates who are running in the single digits. This is down in the noise level as far as polling goes. It would be reasonable to assume that the party choice Emken would place second such a cluster f---- of a primary. The articles proposing that Taitz might come in second were nothing more than guesses that she would come in second on name recognition for Republicans plus an unknown number of Democratic voters trying to saddle the Republicans with Taitz. I am glad she bought into the high expectations though. It is fun to watch her flail about like a flounder in bucket with five inches of warm water.

And I think the media was overly generous to Taitz pre-election, capitalizing on the spectacle that is Orly and trying to cash in.

"Wow, look, whackjob Orly Taitz might actually be the nominee!" not

"Rick Williams has a great chance of contesting the primary."

http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=109362

So, O'rly thinks she can get around to 58 counties in the remaining few days to personally witness the 1% manual count. Her new assistant seems to be just as out of touch with reality as her boss. When her requests are ignored, she will call it as more proof of corruption and how she would have won in a fair election.

June 13, 2012, 6:32 a.m.

Orly Taitz (Party Preference: Rep) 140,382 3.2%
Rick Williams (Party Preference: Rep) 142,444 3.2%
Dan Hughes (Party Preference: Rep) 293,851 6.7%
Elizabeth Emken (Party Preference: Rep) 562,878 12.8%